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In other countries, the fall into deeper degrees of authoritarianism came long ago. Europe-based Tajik journalist Khumayro Bakhtier called on people to think of Tajikistan, rather than Turkmenistan, as Central Asia’s most repressive country as she detailed a long government campaign against any hint of political opposition, independent media, and civic vibrancy from about 2010 onwards. But Turkmenistan still seems to be in a special category of its own. Ruslan Myatiev, editor in chief of the Netherlands-based Turkmen. news, told spectators of a panel on media freedom that the country had “declared war” on the Internet after starting work on a North Korea-style Intranet. Some three-quarters of all websites are blocked in Turkmenistan, Myatiev said. The most lethal outbreak of political violence in the region in recent years came in the form of the unrest of January 2022 in Kazakhstan that left at least 238 people dead.

Russian fakes had become so much of a problem in Kazakhstan, Jalilov said, that experts were afraid the government might use the issue as a pretext to tighten control over the online space. Russia had played a key role in preserving Kazakhstan’s authoritarian regime in January 2022. A monument to former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev lies toppled on the streets of the town of Taldyqorghan during the unrest of January 2022. Moscow-led peacekeepers helped bolster the control of local military and police, who have largely escaped justice for their role in a crackdown that saw civilians killed by indiscriminate fire as well as the systematic torture of detainees arrested during the crisis, according to experts.

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Then again, look at the neighbors. As Kyrgyz political analyst Emil Juraev argued, “between Russia’s war and the increasing global influence of China right next to us, it cannot be good times for democracy-building in Central Asia. " Moscow’s invasion has exacerbated food inflation in Central Asia, while sending tens of thousands of conscription-age Russians scampering south, with Kazakhstan taking the brunt of the exodus. Back in Russia, even greater numbers of Central Asian migrants are trapped between an economy reshaped by sanctions and a sunken ruble and Moscow’s drive to recruit them for its war in Ukraine.

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“It is the speed and acceleration of it all. To lose all those things that we had fought for in the space of a couple of years. Of course, it really alarms you, ” said Cholpon Djakupova, the head of the Legal Clinic Adilet nonprofit organization based in Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek. On the first day of the conference, Kyrgyz prosecutors announced that they had filed papers to shut down Kloop, an independent media outlet well known for its investigations of elite corruption. At present, most of the two dozen activists arrested over their opposition to a border deal that involved Kyrgyzstan ceding a water reservoir to Uzbekistan last fall are still in jail and awaiting a trial that many activists believe is being strung out as a warning to would-be dissenters.

But the war’s overall impact on the political atmosphere of the region is something of an evolving process, with Juraev noting that citizens in some countries were now “asking more daring questions in terms of their societies, ” including about their imperial and Soviet past under Russia. Adil Jalilov, the director of Medianet, a media-focused nonprofit in Kazakhstan, complained that the Ukraine war had critically deepened the already big disinformation problem in local media spaces.

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